Here is a rewritten version of the article in a neutral tone:
Canada Stuck in Recession Despite Headline Numbers, Economists Say
A growing number of economists believe that Canada’s economy is experiencing a recession, despite official statistics indicating otherwise. These experts argue that when examining deeper indicators such as real GDP per capita and government stimulus, it becomes clear that the country is struggling.
Real GDP Per Capita Continues to Decline
One key indicator of economic health is real GDP per capita, which measures the total output of goods and services produced within a nation divided by its population. In Canada’s case, this metric has been declining for six consecutive quarters, with economists David Rosenberg and David Osberg highlighting this trend in their analysis.
Government Stimulus Masking Economic Weakness
Rosenberg pointed out that without government stimulus, real GDP would have declined at an annual rate of 0.3% in the third quarter of last year. This suggests that the economy was weaker than reported, with government spending helping to mask the decline.
Interest Rates and Tariffs Pose Uncertainty
In addition to declining real GDP per capita, another concern is the impact of interest rates on economic growth. The Bank of Canada has been cutting interest rates in an effort to boost investment and productivity, but Osberg notes that these effects may take up to 18 months to materialize.
Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs imposed by the United States poses a significant threat to Canada’s economy, particularly for provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan which rely heavily on exports of oil and gas to the US.
Fiscal Stimulus Could Be More Effective
Osberg also suggested that while fiscal stimulus can have an immediate impact, it may not be the most effective way to address economic weakness. He argued that targeted measures aimed at supporting low-income households could provide a more lasting boost to consumer spending and overall economic growth.
Overall, the consensus among these economists is that Canada’s economy faces significant challenges, which go beyond the headline numbers. Their analysis suggests that policymakers must take a closer look at the underlying indicators to develop effective strategies for addressing economic weakness.